I think "4 free" type of programs will see a rise in action, as it's often easier to do 35 free joins per day at a dollar each than it is one per signup sale. Most 4free programs have averaged 1/35 for me and memberships sales can be as bad as 1/2000, do the math.... If they could better track 4 free signups that convert to full memberships, a recurring model could be possible, however it's a long shot.
Sponsor programs may want to regain more control on the traffic they allow and ways they advertise. To survive, geofiltering traffic affiliates send my better help overall program conversions so that sponsors can still make money with the traffic they can convert via partnerships with related sponsor programs or expanded offerings.
Programs that offer mutliple types of sites and payouts I think will survive, because they have more internal structure to decide what traffic they allow to hit what type of payment forms as well as create more avenues for conversions without having to send the traffic away...
just some ideas...
