I think the need for porn on a user's computer is huge, and has potential to continue to grow and earn revenue for people who have or can attract the traffic. Mobile content IMHO should be considered an up sell item or bonus. It is not realistic to accept that it can provide more then 30% of a companies business.
I also believe affiliate marketing is still and will remain a viable business model. EC and Magnux have it right though, adaptability is key to maintaining solid traffic conversions from adult affiliates. Current programs need to find ways to keep current members and attract new ones that will stick around.
I think the industry will see a number of affiliate programs that will go under. The strong and innovative will survive. Providing exclusive content, keeping ahead of the curve as presentation and technology user's want will also help.
There have always been ways to get free porn. Perhaps not as readily available as there is now online, but there has, and probably always will. People crave their sex, catering to the market is what keeps any business viable.
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